Alix Fagerstén
The Marin Real Estate Monitor
by TeamAlix
June 30, 2010
Will be posted shortly
The Marin Real Estate Monitor
by TeamAlix
June 30, 2009
Buyer's strike, not quite. Seller's strike, maybe! Our market is increasingly price sensitive with buyers making offers on homes which are either appropriately priced or distressed or both. However, the majority of sellers are neither appropriately priced nor - apparently - distressed. Thus a market, defined by lower sale prices and a significantly lower number of homes being sold, is playing out in Marin. This is somewhat contrary to national trends where lower sale prices are being accompanied by a higher volume of homes being sold. Seller's strike? This is how we would categorize the Southern Marin real estate market at the moment.
During the first half of 2009, the Southern Marin real estate market continued to experience declines in the number of homes sold (volume) and median sale prices (prices). Our inventory (homes for sale) and DOM (number of days these homes spent on the market) also increased during this same time period.
Of the Marin markets we follow most closely, all six are trending down significantly versus the same time last year.
Belvedere -14.43%
Tiburon -12.43%
Mill Valley -22.22%
Sausalito -28.17%
Larkspur -50.18%
Corte Madera -19.5%
[BAREIS MLS: median sales price, single family residences, 1/1/09-6/30/09 versus 1/1/08-6/30/08]
Our proprietary TeamAlix BELTIB Index, representing median sale prices across single family homes in both Belvedere and Tiburon, shows a similar trend, albeit less catastrophic.
In the first half of 2009, the BELTIB Index declined 10.38% versus the same period last year. The median number of homes sold in Belvedere and Tiburon is down 37.04% and the median days on market for these homes (DOM) doubled during this same time period. It is interesting to note that the BelTib Index in the first half of 2009 was, however, up 1.52% versus the second half of 2008.
TeamAlix BELTIB Index:
1H 2009
$2,157,500
+1.52%
2H 2008
$2,125,000
-11.73%
1H 2008
$2,407,500
-5.73%
2H 2007
$2,554,063
+21.62%
1H 2007
$2,100,000
+10.52%
2H 2006
$1,900,000
-17.39%
1H 2006
$2,300,000
+9.52%
2H 2005
$2,100,000
-11.94%
1H 2005
$2,385,000
[BAREIS MLS: Belvedere, Tiburon, median sales price, single family residences]
It is important to note that many of our Marin real estate markets have limited data points, even in a 6 month period, and short-term directional moves can therefore be distorted by a relatively small number of outlying data points. The decrease in number of homes sold recently has not aided this. Although we track both average and median figures, we tend to rely mostly on median figures as more accurate.
In any event, the trend has not been our friend, in any of the six Marin markets we follow, over the last year or two.
Looking into our crystal ball, Marin's low unemployment rate, diverse economy, proximity to a major metropolitan city, limited housing stock and almost non-existent growth of housing stock continues to benefit Marin County real estate. In the short-term, however, we continue to see troubled waters for the real estate market in Southern Marin.
If this seller's strike continues, and list prices are not adjusted downward, it is likely that Southern Marin will simply limp along with relatively fewer sales and somewhat muted price declines over the next two years. In this scenario, the "inventory overhang" created by unrealistic sellers will also lessen the impact of a recovery.
If unrealistic sellers become increasingly distressed sellers, Southern Marin real estate may experience an increase in homes sold and a more significant decrease in real estate values. There are a lot of potential buyers... just not at these prices. This scenario would flush out, to a great extent, any "inventory overhang" and likely lead to a quicker and steeper recovery.
Southern Marin real estate is not inexpensive but it never has been. The market is as balanced between buyer and seller as it has been in a decade.
These are my thoughts. I am not an economist. But remember, economics is the only field in which two people can share a Nobel Prize for saying opposing things. : )